If the “new normal” is to mean stabilisation that is to come after the current period of turbulence, then I wouldn’t expect it to come any time soon (in the foreseeable future). We’re now facing a continued – or even intensified – “general uncertainty” affecting all significant parameters of functioning of business, state, society, education, etc.
The reason is the increasing dynamics of the interconnected processes of change: socio-political changes, technological changes, climate change, changes in the biological and sanitary standards, economic changes, geopolitical changes, cultural and social changes.
We are unable to predict, let alone control, such changes.
This is a result of traditional elites losing their credibility. Until recently they were still able to communicate despite conflicts of interests and shape the major processes taking place both worldwide and locally. The deposition of traditional elites is the effect of socio-political changes involving a gradual fading of the traditional middle class on the one hand and a growing sense of deprivation among the poorer people across the world and in individual countries on the other. This gives birth to new nationalism and national populism, which prevent rational policies from becoming implemented. What we are witnessing is a crisis of liberal democracy and authoritarian movements in different variants being on the rise.
The ongoing technological advancement forces revolutionary changes on the job market, leading to the emergence of two groups of human resources: highly-qualified and well-paid experts, specialists, technocrats, entrepreneurs and a poor, easily substitutable precariat. This gives rise to conflicts. Climate change, degradation of the natural environment, and the growing threats to the biological existence of humans (pandemics) call for an understanding and joint efforts on a global scale, which seem a feat impossible to be performed by advocates of “America First” and similar concepts.
Economic changes are hard to foresee in conditions where governments are almost completely free to produce any amount of money and when the business world is dominated by a handful of tech giants.
The geopolitical situation is marked by the increasingly tense confrontation between the US and China, a consolidation of some regional powers (Russia, Turkey, Iran), an unfulfilled dream of a united Europe, and the persistent incertitude in Africa and Latin America. An unconsolidated and incoherent Europe is not a force to be reckoned with. The occurring cultural and social changes are characterised – both worldwide and in individual societies – by a conflict between traditionalist and liberal cultures. This conflict fuels strong political controversy.
And the factors to stabilise the situation are nowhere to be seen. For instance, Kozminski’s BDI analysis (Springer 2020), extended to include the years 2018 and 2019, suggests a deepening imbalance between societies’ expectations in 22 OECD countries, the opinions on the current social situation, and the external and internal economic conditions. The antidote that would make it possible to minimise and somewhat neutralise the negative consequences of the ongoing turbulence is the accumulation of social and intellectual capital. What matters in the case of the former is the rule of law. In the case of the latter it is education and science.
The text is part of the publication "The New Normal. Reality in the times of the global Covid-19 pandemic. A commentary by the faculty of Kozminski University".
