Europe needs not only more workers but, above all, better ways of anticipating which skills will be in short supply in the future and how those shortages can be addressed responsibly. The Horizon Europe project Link4Skills, led by Professor Izabela Grabowska of Kozminski University, demonstrates how artificial intelligence can support such decisions, without allowing technology to replace public policymaking.
Labour shortages in healthcare, construction, technology and engineering are no longer merely a cyclical problem for Europe. They are increasingly structural, driven by ageing societies, a shrinking working-age population, rapid technological change and a growing mismatch between education systems and the needs of the economy. Under these conditions, it is no longer enough to respond to vacancies as they arise. Europe needs tools capable of identifying future skills gaps early, comparing possible interventions and anticipating their consequences – tools that bring together migration research, labour market policy and artificial intelligence.
This approach is at the heart of the European Commission report Future Research on Migration, Human Mobility and Integration: Opportunities and Needs. Prepared by the Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, the document sets out directions for European research on migration, mobility and integration in the years ahead. Rather than treating migration as a separate policy domain, the report presents it as an issue closely connected to economic competitiveness, demographic resilience, innovation and social cohesion.
One of the projects featured in the report is Link4Skills – an international Horizon Europe initiative scientifically led by Professor Izabela Grabowska of Kozminski University.
From diagnosing problems to simulating solutions
The European Commission report is the result of consultations conducted between 2023 and 2025. More than one hundred participants contributed, representing projects funded under Horizon 2020 and Horizon Europe, academia, public administration, international organisations and civil society. On this basis, eight priority areas for future research were identified. They include integration, labour market sustainability, legal migration pathways, technological change and AI, climate-related mobility, the development of data infrastructure and more effective use of research findings in practice.
Link4Skills appears in the section devoted to artificial intelligence and technological change. The central tool being developed by the project is the Link4Skills Navigator, an AI-assisted system designed to enable policymakers to simulate the effects of different public policy interventions.
Instead of merely forecasting that a particular sector will face a shortage of a certain number of workers, the Navigator makes it possible to ask a broader set of questions. How would the introduction of a reskilling programme affect the labour market? What difference would greater labour market participation among people already living in a country make? What could be the consequences of creating a targeted migration pathway for workers with specific qualifications? How would the different options affect the scale of shortages, wage levels and the position of workers? According to the report, users of the tool can test, among other things, the potential consequences of training programmes, increased labour market participation and targeted migration pathways. By bringing together the perspectives of public authorities, employers and education providers, the platform is intended to help align skills development more closely with labour market needs. The Commission points to its potential use in anticipating shortages in sectors including healthcare, construction and STEM. This marks a significant shift in how public data is understood and used. Traditional labour market statistics generally describe a situation that has emerged. Scenario-based tools, by contrast, are intended to identify problems earlier and enable policymakers to compare the available responses.
This does not mean, however, that an algorithm can identify a single “correct” policy. It can help reveal relationships, organise data and make the costs and benefits of different solutions more visible. The decision as to which options are socially acceptable, and fair remains the responsibility of public institutions.
Skill mobility is more than recruitment
Debates about skills shortages are often dominated by the perspective of countries and businesses seeking workers. Talent mobility, however, also has consequences for migrants’ countries of origin, local communities, families and the workers themselves. Recruiting specialists from abroad may alleviate shortages in the destination country’s labour market while simultaneously deepening staffing gaps in the healthcare or education systems of the country of origin. Attracting a worker also does not guarantee that their skills will be used effectively. Barriers to the recognition of qualifications, limited access to public services, employment conditions and a lack of prospects for long-term integration can all lead to skills waste and the underuse of human capital. For this reason, Link4Skills examines skilled-worker mobility from the perspectives of both countries of origin and destination countries. The project brings together 14 partners from 10 countries and encompasses research conducted in 12 countries across four continents.
This broad perspective is intended to move beyond the simple logic of “attracting talent”. The objective is to develop models of skills and talent mobility that are not only economically efficient but also fairer – for economies, institutions and migrants themselves.
The inclusion of Link4Skills in the European Commission report shows that research on skills mobility can directly support public decision-making. Our aim is not only to anticipate skills shortages and skill mismatches more accurately, but also to design solutions that reconcile the needs of the economy with the principles of fair and responsible talent mobility,” says Professor Izabela Grabowska, Director of the Center for Research on Social Change and Human Mobility , CRASH at Kozminski University.
AI as decision support, not a substitute
The potential of artificial intelligence in mobility governance is accompanied by substantial risks. Algorithms based on historical data may reproduce existing inequalities. A system optimised solely for efficiency may overlook individual rights, the social costs of decisions or their long-term consequences for groups.
The European Commission report notes that the use of AI in migration may improve service quality, transparency and institutional efficiency. At the same time, however, it may create risks of discrimination, bias, breaches of data protection and unequal access to digital procedures. These concerns are particularly relevant to areas such as asylum applications, visa procedures, risk profiling, border management and matching workers with employment opportunities.
It is therefore not enough to assess whether a model produces accurate forecasts. It is also necessary to understand which data it was built on, which assumptions it contains, whether its outputs can be explained and who is accountable for decisions made with its support.
The Commission highlights the need for multidisciplinary evaluation of AI systems and for research into their impact on procedural fairness and fundamental rights. Technological solutions used in migration governance should not only be effective but also accountable, compliant with European regulations and human centred. From this perspective, the role of AI is not to replace the policy process. Technology may inform a decision, but it should not determine the value judgements on which that decision rests. A model may demonstrate that a particular migration pathway could reduce labour shortages. It cannot independently determine whether recruitment conditions are fair, whether workers’ rights will be protected or how the solution will affect society in the country of origin.
Research must move beyond the report
The inclusion of Link4Skills in the European Commission report confirms the project’s significance, but it also points to a broader challenge: research findings must remain accessible and useful after funding has ended. The Commission notes that many methodologies and tools developed through Horizon projects remain underused because mechanisms for translating research results into public programmes, funding instruments and the day-to-day practice of institutions are still limited. Lasting “implementation pathways” are therefore needed to enable proven solutions to move from the experimental stage to practical deployment.
The ability to connect research, technology and the practice of policymaking may ultimately determine the long-term significance of Link4Skills. The project’s success will not be measured solely by the number of publications produced or the quality of the models developed. Equally important will be whether public administrations, employers and education systems are able to use its results to make better-informed decisions.
In the future, the strongest economies will be those capable of identifying required skills early, investing in their development and managing worker mobility responsibly. Artificial intelligence can support this process – if it remains a tool serving people and institutions, rather than a mechanism that displaces accountability for public decisions.
