The impact of banking tax on the interbank market in Poland and other EU countries

Technological transformation of banking is one of the most profound changes currently reshaping European economies. Banks increasingly rely on artificial intelligence, automation, data analytics, and blockchain technologies to assess borrowers, allocate credit, and manage risk. At the same time, EU regulations such as PSD2 require banks to share customer data with third-party providers, fundamentally altering the structure of financial markets. The aim of this project was to understand how these developments affect firms’ access to finance, borrowing costs, and the stability of the banking system.

The project combined interviews with financial sector practitioners, a dedicated survey of European banks, and the construction of a unique dataset covering more than 235,000 small and medium-sized enterprises and 54 banks across multiple EU countries. Information on banks’ technology adoption was linked to firm-level financial data, allowing for detailed empirical analysis of how technological transformation changes credit allocation.

The results show that new technologies do increase firms’ access to credit, especially long-term financing needed for investment. Banks using advanced analytical tools can process information more efficiently, leading to higher credit supply and lower borrowing costs for some businesses.

However, the project also uncovered important distributional effects. The benefits of technological change are not evenly shared. Established firms with well-documented financial histories gain more than young or informationally opaque businesses. Technological systems are highly effective at transforming existing data, but they cannot compensate for the absence of formal records. As a result, some smaller and less transparent firms risk being gradually marginalized in credit markets.

The analysis further demonstrates that data-sharing regulation under PSD2 generates positive effects mainly in the early stages of ecosystem development. As fintech markets mature and algorithmic screening becomes more prevalent, the initial benefits for disadvantaged firms may reverse. Banks’ own technological capabilities play a crucial

moderating role: more technologically advanced institutions are better able to integrate regulatory change and mitigate adverse distributional consequences.

Beyond banking, the project highlights a broader lesson about technological innovation. While technology can improve efficiency and expand access, it can also amplify inequalities if its societal implications are not carefully considered. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, emphasizing that technology policy should account not only for short-term efficiency gains but also for long-term social outcomes. By documenting how technology reshapes financial intermediation, the project contributes to a deeper understanding of how technological transformation can be steered toward more inclusive economic development.