Research projects  


Prof. Robert Rządca, Ph.D., Vice-Rector for Research and Faculty Development

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Economics  

Aneta Hryckiewicz - Gontarczyk PhD

The effect of banks' withdrawals on banking sector operations (06.08.2014 - 05.02.2017)

 

The purpose of the project is to examine the effects of foreign banks‘ withdrawals on the functioning of the banking sectors in the developing countires, including Poland. In the last recent years we could observe the massive foreign banks‘ withdrawals from countries, in which these banks have constituted the largest part of the banking sector. Solely from Poland such banks decided to withdraw as AIG Bank, Allianz Bank, West LB, Nordea Bank, KBC Group (owner of Kredyt Bank). There are also some rumours about the divestment of Banco Comercial Portugues (Millenium Bank) and Commerzbank (owner of BRE Bank), banks having a huge market share in the banking market. Unfortunately, in the existing literature there is no research evidence on the consequences of banks' withdrawals on the domestic banking sectors. The only existing research is by Hryckiewicz and Kowalewski published in International Finance Review in 2011, where the authors investigate the determinants of foreign banks withdrawals. Even more important seem to the consequences of such banks' behavior. The aim of the project is to empirically examine and answer the following research questions: what is the effetc of the foreign banks‘ withdrawals on (1) the banking sector’s liquidity, (2) and (3) credit supply and its cost, and (4) the banking sector concentration. The empirical research will cover the sample of banks' withdrawals especially from developing countries (indluding Poland) between the years of 1995-2012. Thanks to using the difference-in-difference methodology we will be able to investigate what change the foreign banks' withdrawals cause on the banking sectors they leave. The change will be examined with respect to liquidity market, credit market and concentration. Taking into account the importance of the banking sector for the real economy, as well as of proper supervision of the banking sectors to limit the excessive risk-taking, this research seems to be of great revlevance for regulators, supervisors, and politiciants. Also, the project allows to fill out the gap in the world academic literature, therefore having a great potential for being published in the international journal.

The realization of the proposed project will allow for closing a gap in the academic literature about the consequences of the foreign banks‘ withdrawls, as well as it will have a very practical aspect for the policy makers by providing important recommendations how to mitigate these consequences.

Project funded by the National Science Centre.

Professor Grzegorz Kołodko

Globalization, income inequalities and economic growth (12.02.2014 -11.02.2016)

Research project objectives/ Research hypothesis
Goal of the research is to investigate current phase of globalization from the point of view of its impact on the income structure in the economies.
Main thesis: current phase of globalization is mainly responsible for huge increase of income inequalities in the majority of economies what jeopardize economic and social stability of global economy.
Supportive thesis:
- way of doing business in the current world contributes to the growing income inequlities both in developed and developing economies,
- changes in the income structure is one of the most important causes of the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2007,
- economic policy conducted in the last years contributed to the increase in income inqualities.

Research project methodology
Research will be based on both qualitative and quantitative methods. Goal of qualitative reasearch (theory and contemporary literature review, data analyze, comprative research) is to find channels of interdependence between current phase of globalization and income structure in both developed and developing economies. Quntitative part of the research will designed to investigate direction and size of relations in found areas, for example:
- impact of the size and structure of foreign trade on income distribution,
- role of outsourcing and offshoring for corporate's cost and level of wages,
- link between model of work force representaion and level of wages,
- role of financial sector in the income distribution,
- dynamics of household income and its indebtnes in years before the crisis,
- impact of economic policy decisions (tax rates, financial sectors deregulation) on the income structure.
Important contribution (acces to the data bases and econometric models) to the research is expected to get from the research visits in US leading scientific institutions - research centers at Berkeley and Stanford Universities.

Expected impact of the research project on the development of science, civilization and society
Impact of the research will have not only theoretical (scientific) aspect by contribution of the economic stock of knowledge on dynamics and structure of income in current economies. Additional goal of the project is formulate advice for economic policy, which has important role in income distribution. We mean here issues like:
- tax policy - income structure, tax progression etc
- public trasfers and delivery of public goods,
- regulatory role of the state in market economy.

Project funded by the National Science Centre.

System Transformation and the socio-economic development. Conditions, achievements, prospects (07.04.2010 - 06.04.2012)

The aim of the proposed project is to simulate the evaluation of the state of progress of system transformation to a market economy, as well as to civil society and democracy, particularly contrasting these processes and the functioning of the economy. The evaluation is based on both comparison and postulation processes.


The project also devotes particular attention to studies of institutional and cultural conditionings of production and development increase. This is to exemplify the process in the long-term by trying to capture factors that not only determine economic (financial and trade), but dynamic, social and ecological balance. Thus, only under this condition are chances for long-term, fast and harmonious development arise.


A substantial part of the project will consists of complex statistical and econometric analysis based on the methods of contemporary spectral analysis. Additionally, the practical feasibility of such econometric tools used for purposes of the analysis of production growth factors and optimization of their use will be verified.


All research will be strongly embedded in the international and global context because of the parallel globalization process. System transformation in post-socialist countries is integrally conjugated with this process and the corresponding dependencies require further studies.


The project is funded by The Ministry of Science and Higher Education

Professor Krzysztof Jackowicz 

Depositor discipline and the financial conditions of countries (20.08.2013 - 19.03.2015)

Research project objectives

During the recent financial crisis and previous crisis episodes, many countries introduced full or nearly full guarantees of bank deposits and even bank liabilities. It is customary to assume that such actions diminish or eradicate market discipline in banking. However, we think that this effect is not universal because the net result of changes in these so-called “safety nets” depends in large part on the credibility of the new commitments. This credibility is in turn ultimately shaped by the state of public finances. Therefore, our main research objective is to establish whether the different capabilities of various governments to fulfil their explicit or implicit obligations engender different and nuanced reactions from depositors with respect to modifications in safety nets.

Project funded by the National Science Centre.

Depositor Behaviors in [East-Central Europe] countries (04.05.2011 - 03.07.2012)

The aim of the project is to analyze depositor behaviors under crisis conditions in the East-Central Europe countries. Experiences, presented in the literature and related to the depositor behaviors under crisis conditions, refer in particular to all developed countries and non-European developing countries. They should not be automatically used for explaining the situation that is observed in our part of Europe. Countries of the East-Central Europe share a clear characteristic that results from the common economic history and similar level of development. 

The proposed research strategy is based on the use of the specific character of banking systems of East-Central Europe countries and a peculiarity of the recent crisis. The analyzed systems are characterized by the high share of banks controlled by foreign investors. As a matter of fact, it was dominant banks derived from the developed countries that have been more affected by financial problems than domestic foreign-controlled companies. It allows to analyze depositor behaviors under crisis conditions by verification of the following hypotheses: deposit outflow from the banks owned by foreign banks, that found themselves in a difficult financial position; inflow of financial resources to state banks and national banks as well as to the banks recognized as too big to have let them collapse; banks owned by the foreign capital attempting to compete with the level of interest rate, impact of the public aid given to the foreign owners of domestic banks that reduces the deposit outflow. Tools for verification of the hypotheses will be: tests for significant disparities of average and median in various sub-groups of banks as well as parameters estimation of the explanatory models of high of interest rate on deposits and their volume dynamics. 

Project funded by the National Science Centre.

 

Oskar Kowalewski PhD with habilitation

Interbank market and the risk of contagion in multinational bank holding companies (12.06.2013 - 11.12.2014)

An important concern relating to the increased role of large multinational bank holding companies is their impact on financial stability. The research project contemplates what is the scope for spillover of idiosyncratic shocks from one bank subsidiaries to other banks subsidiaries within a multinational bank holding company through the internal interbank market.
Within multinational bank holding companies internal interbank markets allow parent banks and subsidiaries to cope with capital needs and specific liquidity shocks. At the same time, they may represent a channel for contagion since a subsidiaries default may spread to other subsidiaries or parent bank through interbank linkages. The risk associated with interbank lending may lead to domino effects, where the failure of a bank subsidiaries in one country results in the failure of other banks subsidiaries in another country even if the latter are not directly affected by the initial shock or does not hold open positions with the initially failing bank.
This research project will try to establish how contagion propagates within the multinational bank holding company interbank market by using simulations and a unique data set on internal assets and liabilities of parent bank and its foreign bank subsidiaries

Project funded by the National Science Centre.

Renata Maria Dyląg PhD

Using fair value in reporting (08.10.2009 - 07.10.2011)

The main objective of the project is to investigate the practices in use in Polish conditions for fair value measurement and presentation of elements of financial statements by banks and listed companies drawing up financial reports in accordance with IAS / IFRS and the impact of these practices on the credibility and usefulness of financial information. Implementation of the proposed project will provide a voice in the debate on the benefits and negative effects of widespread use as the basis of fair value measurement in financial statements. As a result, this study will provide information about the application of fair value, methods and techniques of estimating the benefits and difficulties associated with this practice occurring in Polish listed companies. Attempt is made to evaluate the suitability and acceptability in Polish conditions as the basis of fair value pricing by entities not listed.

Project funded by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education.